TOLD YA SO!

How My “Yuge” Pre-Election Predictions Went Viral

You know how that wise person in your life sometimes cautions you to be careful what you post on Facebook, because it might end up being seen by everyone? That happened to me, and embarrassingly, it was the predictions I made the day before the election that was picked up, published, and analyzed by Guns.com after the election. Oops! I’ll share the predictions, their comments, and my plea for mercy, followed by my thoughts on what a Trump Presidency means for the nation, and other news.

Presidential Bingo Predictions Added Entertainment to My Election Night

November 10, 2016 | Opinion by Eve Flanigan, Guns.com

 

Some time back, I profiled patent attorney Bennet Langlotz, who represents the interests of many household-name gun makers. In the process, I discovered he’s a consistent Facebooker, unafraid to share his political views with industry friends — who are likely a quite safe audience.

Langlotz has obviously pondered a lot about yesterday’s presidential election.  On November 07, he issued a list of predictions. On Election Day, he posted excited updates about crossing off items on the list, presidential bingo-style.  Here they are, with results:

BKL:      My thoughts on the eve of Election Day:

Trump will win, probably easily. ~330 EVs.

Final electoral votes for Trump: 276.

BKL:      I believe this because all the early vote *data* is strongly for Trump compared to 2012 numbers.

In a lively Facebook feed, Langlotz kept up the comparisons between the 2012 Romney vote versus Trump’s in key states.  His observation held, for the most part.

BKL:      Hillary’s best (only) hope is for Trump supporters to believe he will lose and stay home, which is why you’ll hear more on election day about “exit polls” (distorted to favor Hillary) more than you ever have before.

Edison Research of New Jersey claims to be the only exit polling provider for the National Election Pool (a poll for a pool?) The company’s website gives good lip service to sound use of the scientific method — using surveyors who are trained and willing to be non-partisan, and selecting poll sites using unbiased sampling methods, for example. By the time results got to CBS News, its presentation was, as Langlotz predicted, solidly pro-Clinton.

BKL:      Gary Johnson won’t get 3% and those who previously told friends and pollsters they supported him will mostly break for Trump. But their friends will always be impressed at what bold free thinkers they were.

There were enough people “feeling the Johnson” to beat Langlotz’s prediction, albeit by less than half a point. Johnson squeezed out 3.2 percent of the vote.

BKL:      The corporate media will explain that Trump’s win isn’t a “mandate” for any number of reasons, such as early voters being unfairly affected by the FBI announcement weeks before the election.

There surely was some of this in the constant prattle of news coverage that went late into the night, though I couldn’t find any clear evidence other than The Washington Times observing that neither candidate would walk away with a mandate. No matter to Donald Trump, who already declared last spring that he has a popular mandate, after winning the primary.

BKL:      The corporate media will announce that Trump must compromise and govern from the center, and abandon some of the positions he won with. (He won’t).

This took literally minutes after the win was announced, and there are many examples. The Vox blog was among the first to chime in with an article that includes this: “Trump has always played to the people who love him most. If he’s going to be a president for all Americans, he has to stop.”

BKL:      The corporate media will explain that their propaganda polls were so far off because “polls tighten” close to the election and the trend favored Trump (when in fact they deliberately cheated in the polls to prop up Hillary).

I couldn’t find an example yet, but hey Bennet, be kind. It may take some time for places like HuffPo to rally an explanation for this prediction of a Clinton landslide.

BKL:      The corporate media will call states for Hillary as fast as possible even when it’s uncertain and close, but delay calling for Trump much later, to create a temporary electoral map that favors Hillary while Western states are still voting.

Posts to social media by lots of conservatives, including Langlotz, bemoaned the delays in calling states for Trump. At some point, someone on my Facebook feed complained about Pennsylvanians not learning math. The early-voting eastern state was shown in Democrat blue on most media sites until California’s results were being posted. The state turned red well after midnight EST.

BKL:      “Angry white men”. Get used to that phrase from the corporate media to taint the Trump victory as racist.

Langlotz was obviously concerned this one would get away. With all but a handful of states called, however, he declared that he got to mark this “bingo box.” I couldn’t the “angry” quip myself, but this often-used stereotype of Trump supporters had spread to Australia earlier on Election Day.

BKL:      If Hillary wins (unlikely) it will be close, within the margin of fraud, and Trump will fight to ensure that only legal votes are counted. The GOP won’t help or support his effort to ensure fairness in our elections.

Trump has said “I will accept the results of this election, if I win.” Looks like we won’t have to worry about this one.

BKL:      Obama will pardon Hillary, and his new Obama Foundation will get a 9-figure donation from the Clinton (crime) Family Foundation.

Charges and a conviction have to happen first, all before January 15. Don’t hold your breath.

Trump’s victory speech suitably concluded with a song that summarizes the “I’m voting against that candidate X, rather than for the other candidate” quotes heard from throngs of voters.  It was the Rolling Stones’ “You can’t always get what you want.”

No Comment

OK, except that the electoral vote total will come out at 306 for Trump, which makes my 330 prediction look more respectable. I admit that I wasn’t trying to look like a good prognosticator, I was trying to encourage my Facebook friends that Trump was going to win so they didn’t get discouraged and let their friends stay home. Even on election day I had a call with a Michigan client that needed to be bucked up a bit by the good statistical news I was hearing (I’m not the smart one, but my sources were). I didn’t mind the liberals cheering against Trump, but in the prior weeks I had ripped into a few pro-gun Facebook friends who were acting like depressed “Eeyores” and complaining about how both candidates were terrible, or Trump wasn’t really pro-gun.

I also note that Nixon was pardoned without ever having been indicted, so I assume Hillary will be too.

Speaking of the Electoral College… (for Dummies)

Here’s all you really need to know about why we need an Electoral College:

Imagine that East Coast region had an overwhelming self-interest in, say, federal whale oil subsidies and maintaining a ban on oil drilling. 100% of those voters might vote for a candidate that supported their interests over those of the nation, and with a Popular Vote system that might be enough to overwhelm the rest of the nation where the opposing candidate had widespread popularity.

The Electoral College yields a President with broad support. The Popular Vote risks encouraging putting regional interests above the national interest, which is bad for the nation.

Note that none of this is based on the partisan politics of urban vs rural. Liberals might sometimes benefit from the Popular Vote, but that’s not how conservatives should justify it, or why the Founders adopted it.

By the way, did you know that many states don’t EVER count their absentee ballots if there aren’t any close races? So don’t let anyone tell you Hillary won the popular vote. Maybe shell will all the votes counted but not necessarily all the votes cast, including overseas military ballots.

In Memoriam

Mike Dillon, the founder of my client Dillon Precision and Dillon Aero passed away this month, and we extend our sympathies to his family. My fond memory at one of my first shot shows was being invited by Mike to sit down at his booth’s table with my then-hero now-friend author John Ross. A Facebook friend (The Outdoor Channel’s Michael Bane) recently recalled visiting the Dillon plant back when: “Mike invited me to the back of the shop, where he pointed at an engine lift with something hanging from it. ‘Ta-dah!’ Mike said. I said, ‘A mini-gun?’ Mike was beaming. ‘Yep.’ ‘How on earth did you get a mini-gun?’ I asked. ‘I sold a reloading machine to the Army, and now I’m an Official Military Contractor. So I ordered a mini-gun for ‘test-and-evaluation.’’”

SHOT Show Inaugural

On the final day of the upcoming SHOT Show at 9AM, Donald Trump will be inaugurated. Will your booth be ready? Will you be able to put an internet feed up on your big screen? Can you display closed captions so people can follow through the noise? My hunch is that business will pause during Trump’s speech so you might not want to have a celebrity demo or critical meeting scheduled at that time. A big exhibitor who plans and promotes it right can have a massive gathering at their booth for an hour or more.

I’ll see you there for the celebration!

Look for Next Month’s Newsletter

I didn’t have room here, but next month I’ll share some insights into which industry companies will suffer in the aftermath of an anti-gun White House and which will thrive.

By Ben Langlotz | November 14, 2016 | Firearms | 0 Comments